I’m starting to think that Rudy Giuliani is not going to take the path most observers thought he would take with regards to abortion. Giuliani’s socially moderate positions, particularly his wishy-washy support for abortion rights as long as the courts say so, are generally perceived as a vulnerability that will make him less appealing to conservative Republican primary voters. At some point Giuliani would have to walk back some of his past statements in support of Roe v. Wade and disavow his efforts as mayor of New York to expand funding for abortions for women who could not afford. If effect, Giuliani would have to engage in a kabuki dance for the Republican base to convince them that they are all knowing and he had erred.
The most blatant confrontation between Rudy Giuliani’s abortion beliefs and the gilded position held by most of the Republican Party on the issue was last week at the Simi Valley GOP debate. In that setting Giuliani waffled on whether he thought it would be acceptable for the Supreme Court to overturn Roe. Giuliani said it would OK if they did and OK if they didn’t, while reasserting his contention that abortion rights should be decided on a state by state basis.
Besides failing to convey any personal conviction to any ideology, Giuliani’s answer struck me as a signal moment in his campaign. Maybe he isn’t going to pull a Full Romney and change his state belief on abortion to improve his chances to win higher office. Yes, it is admirable that he will retain his soft support for abortion rights while running for president, but from a purely political standpoint this has to be viewed as reducing Giuliani’s chances of winning over Republican primary voters. Worse still, with Giuliani falling in many polls, unexpected steps counter to the desires of the base could really mean Giuliani will be finished soon.
Giuliani wants to shift the focus of the debate away from abortion:
Rudolph W. Giuliani told a gathering of conservatives Monday that his campaign could be boiled down to two major themes: national security and economic security.
Mr. Giuliani did not cite values as a theme, which is unusual for a major Republican presidential candidate, and the omission seemed especially striking Monday, coming as it did just hours after a report that he and his former wife had donated $900 to an abortion rights advocacy group and provider.
The potential to damage his relationship with the conservative base surely grew yesterday as Giuliani had a somewhat confrontational appearance on conservative pundit Laura Ingraham’s radio show.
“My idea of a choice is that it should be a real choice and that ultimately, then, you have to respect a woman’s consciousness,” Giuliani told Ingraham and listeners on 340 radio stations nationwide. “I think life is enormously important, but so is personal liberty.”
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When Ingraham ended the segment with a standard line about his returning again, a clearly agitated Giuliani responded: “I would love to come back, but you’re going to have to ask me about the war on terror and what we do about the economy, which is after all what most citizens ask me about.”
“Well, conservatives are citizens, too, Mayor Giuliani!” Ingraham responded. “We’re citizens, too.”
The exchange with Ingraham is revealing in that it shows that Giuliani thinks he really can run a campaign for the Republican nomination for president without devoting time talking about abortion. He does not think it germane to the debate he wants to have, so he ends up insulting the Republican base.
Giuliani does not want to talk to conservatives about abortion rights and his beliefs on how abortion should be legislated in America. Getting a clear answer from Giuliani in front of a hostile audience (GOP debate & Ingraham’s show) is difficult. He just doesn’t want to talk about his known weak spot and, at the debate in particular, he gets petulant when pressed for answers. This is not a recipe for success.
Technorati Tags: 2008 Presidential election, abortion, Laura Ingraham, Rudy Giuliani